Mar 21, 2026
On last week's Wednesday webinar we heard from Jamie Mageau and Sally Donovan at Rove as they unpacked the cross-border travel impacts between the U.S. and Canada. They analyzed the 2025 performance for New York State tourism with an outlook for 2026.
Traveler Sentiment
- The U.S. is the least desired tourism inbound market but has stabilized some after hitting a low in March 2025
- The desire to visit the U.S. is low for Canadian travelers, with the percentage of Canadians interested in visiting the U.S. dropping from 44% in 2024 to 37% in 2025.
- In response, many Canadian travelers are substituting US trips with domestic travel within Canada or shifting to international destinations like the Mexican Caribbean.
- Approximately 59% of Canadian travelers cited U.S. government policies, trade practices, and political statements as reasons for avoiding travel to the US.
- Cost is a significant factor for travelers, with nearly six in ten Canadians stating that financial considerations drive their travel decisions.
2025 Impact Travel
- International visitation to the U.S. fell by 6% in 2025, with Canadian travel declining by 30%.
- For the first time in 25 years, Mexico surpassed Canada to become the largest international source market for the US.
- The U.S. lodging industry experienced a bifurcated economy in 2025, where growth was primarily driven by luxury and upper-income segments, while economy and midscale hotels remained flat.
- Rising operating costs, including labor, insurance, and utilities, are outpacing revenue growth and putting pressure on the profitability of local businesses and hotels.
- The strong US dollar continues to make travel to the US more expensive for Canadians while giving Americans more leverage for international travel.
NYS Consortium Data Insights
- Domestic markets remain the primary driver of visitor spending, with international spending typically accounting for only 2-3% of total destination spend, though this impact is higher in border counties.
- Visa spend data indicates that retail and dining sectors in certain New York counties have been negatively affected by the decline in Canadian visitors.
- Unlike the traditional hotel sector, short-term rentals experienced a growth in demand, suggesting that while travelers still want to explore, they are re-evaluating their choices to find more cost-effective options.
- Mobile location data shows a significant drop in Canadian visitors from the Ontario market.
2026 Outlook
- The forecast for 2026 is cautiously optimistic, with domestic leisure travel expected to grow by approximately 2%.
- International inbound travel is projected to recover slightly, potentially increasing by 4% in the latter half of 2026, partly bolstered by major events like the World Cup.
- Despite this projected growth, total visitation levels are expected to remain below 2019 figures.
- Opportunities for 2026 include focusing on the growing demographic of Gen Z and Millennial travelers, promoting shoulder seasons to manage cost sensitivities, and leveraging infrastructure investments and local events to drive demand.
Thank you again to Sally and Jamie for presenting, as well as everyone who attended! You can access the slide deck here as well as the U.S. Travel Association Travel Forecast data here.
About the NYSTIA Wednesday Webinar Series:
Back by popular demand, NYSTIA is once again hosting a free, weekly virtual workshop series in an informal, "coffee and conversation format. All are welcome to join and send invitations to your friends and colleagues! Each webinar is recorded and archived for post-event access.
Next Webinar on March 25: Beyond the Pour: How DMOs Can Turn Wineries, Breweries & Culinary Culture into Destination Drivers with Kelly Fitzpatrick from Zartico and panelists, Erin Rafalowski, Brian Hayden and Hillary Fenner. Learn More & Register
Find the Wednesday Webinar January 2026 Series Recaps here!